NetZero-Tufts-5-Mar-2021

NetZero America Presentation at Tufts 5 Mar 2021

CREATE Solutions Speaker Series at Tufts Fletcher School Study done by Princeton Univ Dec 15 2020https://environmenthalfcentury.princeton.edu
- NetZero America: Potential Pathways, Infrastructure and Impacts
- E. Larson, C. Grieg, J. Jenkins, E. Mayfield, A. Pascal, C Zhang et al
we use roughly 5 exajoules
5 modeled least-cost paths to net-zero in 2050 show implications on different approaches
- no new policies
- High electrification (E+)
  - 76% less oil and gas than 2020
- Less high electrification (E-)
  - uses more fossil fuels
- Less electrification, high biomass (E-, B+)
  - more biomass used to supplant fossil fuels
- High electrification, constrained RE (E+, RE-)
  - less biomass to minimize land use problems associated w/ increased biomass
  - Relies on nuclear power and more natural gas w/ carbon capture
- High electrification, all RE by 2050 (E+, RE+)
  - 100% renewable
  - Fossil and nuclear 100% prohibited
  - Biomass w/ carbon capture and direct air capture
- 4 key building blocks to all of these options
  - end use energy efficiency and electrification
  - Clean electricity (wind, solar — w/ nuclear and biomass w/ carbon
  - Net zero carbon fuels
  - Carbon capture
- Good News
  - although transformations are large, all are affordable
  - We eventually spend the same or less on energy as total of GDP by 2050
- Challenge 1: significant upfront mobilization of capital and labor
  - $2.5T over next decade
  - $830B on wind, solar
  - $530B on distribution
  - $420B on buildings and appliances
  - $360B in industry
  - $130B on Options creation
  - $250b on vehicles
- Challenge 2: trade offs, not aggregate cots, more real options mean greater probability of success
  - no one scenario dominates
  - Fundamental trade offs in each of them, which challenges are easiest to overcome?
  - May need to keep all options open
  - For example: where electricity more than doubles, solar and wind are cornerstones for each path
    - Need to deploy 600 gigawatts in next decade
    - We did 35 last year, would need to get up to 55-60 on average
  - need to triple the transmission system
    - 1M GW-km required
  - While wind_solar are critical, you have to solve for intermittency (clean_firm)
    - nuclear or biomass or hydrogen or natural gas + carbon capture
    - Learn from Texas issues
    - Need roughly 500 GW of firm power sources
  - Challenge 3: all politics is local, decision support needs to offer gradual guidance and politically silent results
    - affordability and distribution of benefits and costs across the country
    - Most states see net growth in energy-related employee net (500k in next decade, 2-3M by 2050)
    - But major shifts in local economies must be managed
    - Princeton study identifies states where conversion will be most problematic and requires support
    - 200k - 300K premature deaths avoided thru 2050 by a net zero transition (avoids $2-3T in damages) ## Questions##
How might offshore wind positively impact these models?
What assumptions about capacity? The