US-Paris-Agreement-8-Mar-2021

US and the Paris Agreement 8 Mar 2021

  • Speakers
    • Robert Stavins, Professor HKS
    • Tina Latif (one of the lead negotiator of Paris Agreement)
    • Natalie Untertell (Brazilian negotoiator) Stavin
  • What will happen w/ US Climate Policy under Biden Administration
    • rejoined Paris Agreement (started process on 1/20, formerly a party again on 2/19)
    • Hard part — Nationally determined contribution (NDC) — how much greenhouse gas will be reduced by 2030
    • Challenging because
      • must be ambitious enough to satisfy domestic green group and key countries
      • Will need to be more ambitious than Obama NDC (26-28% below 2005 by 2025 and 50% by 2030)
      • Must be credible — achievable w/ reasonably anticipated policy actions)
      • Only way both conditions are met w/ new legislation
      • But senate require 60 votes
        • budget reconciliation procure might be used for 51
        • So, prospects for comprehensiveive climate legislation not very good
      • Non-climate legislation could reduce GHG long-term
      • Post-CoViD economic stimulus could have some green elements
      • Infrastructure bill w/ electricity grid updates (for greater reliance on renewable sources and greater penetration of EV)
      • Tax incentives (subsidies) — wind and solar, carbon capture and storage, nuclear power, tech initiatives, EV rebates, etc.
      • these are feasible, but probably not enough
      • Will need to also layer on regulatory actions
      • Regulatory Orders
        • EO’s
          • reinstate and surpass Obama CAFE standards for vehicles
          • Reinstate Obama rule re methane leaking from wells and pipelines
          • Recalculate social cost of carbon
        • Agency actions
          • SEC — disclosure requirements for climate risk
          • Commodity futures trading commission — market risk
        • Congressional review act to nullify rule but
          • must be w/in 60 legislative days of rule’s original adoption
          • Congress must authorize any new reg of substantially same form
        • Challenges to regulation
          • new rules have lengthy notice and comment period
          • Subject to litigation
          • More likely to challenged successfully than during Obama years
          • 245 trump appointed federal judges
          • Supreme Court 6-3 conservative majority
          • Favors literary readings of statutes, less flexible
          • May modify/overrule Chevron Doctrine (under which federal courts defeat to angencies when Congress was not explicit)
          • One striking example — question of whether CO2 may be regulated under parts of Clean Air Act — intended for localized air pollution
        • Other possibilities
          • “whole of government” approach to climate change
          • All departments and agencies consider climate impact of all police and actions
          • Will this really produce in terms of short-term emissions and long-term decarbonizing of economy?
            • we don’t know
          • State-level policies can be effective
            • sub-national — California and Northest becoming more important
            • Bottom-up national policy evolving from Democratic-leaning states
            • Which represent more than half of US population and an even greater share of economic activity and GHG emissions
            • best scientists, lawyers, and economists to design sound climate policies that also be politically feasible
          • Links
            • belfer center on climate
            • Harvard environmental economic program
            • Stavin’s personal website ## Latif##
  • Optimistic about reframing the conversation
  • Positive case for action — call for structural change to global economy
  • We expect Biden to make a Net Zero commitment in April at a climate conference
  • New wave of investment and innovation
  • What might “winning” look like?
  • Need to make Paris Agreement relevant and talked about at all levels of government
  • Optimistic about “whole of government” approach
    • decision-makers across multiple sectors providing currently untold value
  • Nudge governments to scan horizon on where they will be in 20 years
    • ideas for incentives for businesses, governments
  • Need to mainstream climate thinking
  • International Women’s Day
    • disproportionate impact of climate change on women in developing countries and disaster situation
    • 14x more likely to die in a natural disaster
    • Girls 2-3x more likely to not get back to school post-disaster
  • Can be a path to a more prosperous future Untertell
  • Paris Agreement is having real effect on real economy
  • Major trade deal between EU and Mercosur
    • currently blocked about potential risks to Paris Agreement
    • But actively being negotiated
  • Climate diplomacy has not yet caught up
  • Most of the top 18 major emitters and signers have not updated major emitter goals
  • US re-joining Paris and multi-literalism is welcome and very important
    • biggest historical contributor
    • Still 20% of current emissions
  • hopefully, Biden admin can be more generous to international green funds
  • More trust in multi-lateralism
  • Powerful political leverage to push other countries in the right direction
  • Trump’s announcement in 2017 de-stabilized trust in US commitments but also encouraged other countries to decrease their contributions
  • Biden re-joining is having a positive domino effect
  • China and US both need to increase their NDC’s
  • Hopeful about India
  • Brazil currently moving in the wrong direction (esp. deforestation)
  • lots of expectations in bi-lateral and regional contributions by US